Full Market Cycles Can Be a Real Bear

As of June 30, 2017, the current cyclical bull market is 100 months long (well beyond the 43 month average*) with an annualized return of 16.59%. In that light, we think it is especially important to be mindful of how gains are affected over full market cycles. 

The chart below separates the allure of bull market gains from the reality of what happens when the market cycle completes. As you can see, bull market gains can become mediocre returns by the end of the full market cycle. Note that returns are similarly impacted regardless of which comes first - the bull or the bear.

While we don’t know when the record highs of this bull will end, history has shown us a bear will follow. What will returns look like over the full cycle?

Click here for a PDF of this article.

Stadion was founded with a simple investment strategy over 20 years ago: Attempt to capture gains in the market’s good times while limiting losses in the bad times to meet our goal of delivering satisfying returns with less volatility.

*S&P 500 Index, 1/1/49 – 10/9/07, average does not include current bull market; 1The current bull cycle has not been completed. Performance noted is through 6/30/17.
There is no guarantee that the investment strategies will succeed, the strategies are not an indicator of future performance and investment results may vary.  Stadion’s actively managed portfolios may underperform during bull markets. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. The investment strategies presented are not appropriate for every investor and individual clients should review with their financial advisors the terms and conditions and risk involved with specific products or services. The S&P 500 Index is the Standard & Poor’s Composite Index of 500 stocks and is a widely recognized, unmanaged index of common stock prices. It is not possible to invest directly in indexes (like the S&P 500) which is unmanaged and does not incur fees or charges.


Past Performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments are subject to risk, and any of Stadion's investment strategies may lose money.